The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration is not discounting a possible landfall over Catanduanes and Camarines Norte-Camarines Sur as typhoon “Rolly” (international name “Goni”) has been moving more west-southwest towards Bicol Saturday afternoon.

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In the 2 p.m. PAGASA weather bulletin, Rolly was last observed at 410 kilometers east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes around 1 p.m.

PAGASA said the eye of  Rolly may pass over Catanduanes-mainland Camarines provinces by Sunday morning before proceeding to mainland Quezon by afternoon. 

It has maintained its maximum sustained winds of 215 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 265 kph. 

The State weather bureau said Rolly will likely remain a typhoon with maximum sustained winds between 185 kph and 205 kph by the time it makes landfall.

Violent winds and intense rainfall associated with the inner rainband-eyewall region of Rolly will prevail over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur early Sunday through afternoon, and over Quezon and southern portion of Aurora by afternoon through evening. 

As the strong typhoon inches closer to land, tropical cyclone wind signal No. 3 has been hoisted over Catanduanes, northeastern portion of Camarines Sur (Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, Tigaon, Sagnay, San Jose, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan, and Sagnay), and northeastern portion of Albay (Tiwi, Malinao, Tabaco City, Malilipot, Sto. Domingo, Bacacay, and Rapu-Rapu).

Signal No. 2 was raised over the southeastern portion of Laguna (Sta. Maria, Famy, Mabitac, Pakil, Siniloan, Pangil, Paete, Kalayaan, Lumban, Cavinti, Pagsanjan, Luisiana, Majayjay, Magdalena, Sta. Cruz, Pila, Liliw, Nagcarlan, Rizal, Victoria, Calauan, San Pablo City, Alaminos, and Bay), Quezon, including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, the rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Albay, Sorsogon, the northern portion of Masbate (Mobo, Milagros, Masbate City, Baleno, Aroroy, Mandaon, and Balud), including Ticao and Burias Islands, Marinduque, Romblon, and Northern Samar.

Areas under Signal No. 1 were Metro Manila, Rizal, rest of Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, including Lubang Island, Oriental Mindoro, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, southern portion of Isabela (Aurora, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Benito Soliven, San Mariano, Palanan, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Cordon, Santiago City, Ramon, San Isidro, Angadanan, Alicia, Cauayan City, Cabatuan, and San Mateo), northern portion of Samar (Tagapul-An, Almagro, Sto. Nino, Tarangnan, Catbalogan City, Calbayog City, Sta. Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, San Jose de Buan, and Matuguinao), the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Jipapad, Arteche, Oras, and San Policarpo), and Biliran.

After crossing Southern Luzon and Metro Manila, the center of Rolly is seen to leave mainland Luzon landmass by Monday morning.

It is forecast to weaken considerably and emerge as a severe tropical storm or minimal typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.

This Saturday, the outer rainbands of Rolly may begin to bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol region and Eastern Visayas. 

Beginning early Sunday morning, the passage of Rolly will bring heavy to intense rains over Metro Manila, Bicol region, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Quezon, Central Luzon, Marinduque, and the northern portions Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro. 

Moderate to heavy rains will also prevail over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos region, Romblon, and the rest of Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro.

PAGASA warned that flooding, rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows or lahar may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly susceptible to these hazards. 

Destructive typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under Signal No. 3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under Signal No. 2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under Signal No. 1. 

Based on the intensity forecast, the highest possible wind signal to be raised will be Signal No. 4 for very destructive typhoon-force winds. 

Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and the coastal and mountainous areas of Cagayan and Isabela that are not under Signal No. 1.

There is a high risk of storm surge of more than three meters over the northern coastal areas of Quezon, including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes; up to two to three meters over the coastal areas of Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, southeastern coastal area of Batangas and southwestern coastal area of Quezon; and one  to two meters over the coastal areas of Aurora, Zambales, Occidental Mindoro, the rest of the coastal areas of Bicol region, Batangas, and Quezon in the next 24 hours which may result in life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation. 

PAGASA said this storm surge may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast.

Rough to “phenomenal” seas (2.5 to 15 meters) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where tropical cyclone warning signal is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to five meters) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under tropical cyclone warning signals) and Caraga. 

Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters, especially those under storm warning signals.

Meanwhile, moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 meters) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country. 

Mariners of small sea vessels were advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea, while inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

While Rolly is unleashing heavy rains and intense winds over Luzon, the tropical depression with international name “Atsani” could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility Sunday afternoon. It will be assigned its local name “Siony” once inside the PAR. 

It was estimated at 1,655 kms east of Southern Luzon around 10 a.m. Saturday.

Atsani has maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 70 kph, moving northwest at 25 kph. It is likely to re-intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24, and further into a typhoon in the next few days.

It remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next three days. But Estareja said PAGASA is not ruling out a possible landfall over Central or Southern Luzon, before recurving toward the southern islands of Japan in the coming days.

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